BMC Exit Polls Signal Clear Majority for BJP+, Major Setback for Thackeray Brothers

Mumbai | Undercover Editor News Channel, January 15, 2026

Mumbai:

Polling for Maharashtra’s 29 municipal corporations, including the high-profile Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), concluded peacefully on Thursday evening. As voting ended, exit polls released by Axis My India have stirred political buzz across Mumbai, suggesting a decisive advantage for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance and a significant setback for the Thackeray brothers’ joint political experiment.

According to the exit poll projections, the BJP+ alliance — comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena — is poised to secure a comfortable majority in the 227-member BMC. The majority mark stands at 114 seats, and BJP+ is projected to cross this threshold with ease.

The final verdict, however, will be known only after counting begins on Friday, January 16.

Seat Share Projections

As per Axis My India’s estimates, the BJP-led alliance is expected to win between 131 and 151 seats, placing it well above the majority mark. In contrast, the alliance of Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) headed by Raj Thackeray is projected to secure 58 to 68 seats.

The Congress, which entered into a last-minute alliance with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), is likely to be restricted to 12 to 16 seats, indicating a limited impact in the civic battle.

With nearly 1,700 candidates contesting across all wards, the exit poll numbers suggest a strong possibility of a power shift in India’s richest municipal body.

Vote Share Estimates

The exit poll indicates that BJP+ has emerged as the single-largest force in terms of vote share, with an estimated 42% of the total votes. The Thackeray brothers’ alliance is projected to receive 32%, while Congress+ and other parties are estimated to have garnered around 13% each.

Community-wise Voting Trends

A closer look at caste and community-wise trends reveals a mixed picture:

• Marathi voters: UBT+ leads with 49% support, while BJP+ secures 30%
• North Indian voters: BJP+ dominates with 68% support
• South Indian voters: BJP+ leads with 61%
• Muslim voters: Congress+ receives 41%, UBT+ gets 28%, while BJP+ trails with 12%

These trends indicate that while the Thackeray-led alliance retains strong support among Marathi voters, BJP+ has built a broader cross-community coalition.

Class and Profession-Based Trends

Exit polls also highlight BJP+’s edge across multiple occupational groups:

• Students: BJP+ – 45%, UBT+ – 35%
• Unemployed voters: BJP+ – 37%, UBT+ – 34%
• Labour class: BJP+ – 40%
• Professionals: BJP+ – 40%, UBT+ – 30%

The Congress alliance remained a distant third across most categories.

Women and Youth Back BJP+

Gender-wise trends show BJP+ leading among both women and men voters:

• Women voters: BJP+ – 44%, UBT+ – 31%
• Men voters: BJP+ – 40%, UBT+ – 33%

The data suggests that BJP+ has emerged as the preferred choice among women and young voters in this election.

Thackeray Stronghold Under Threat

The BMC has traditionally been a Shiv Sena bastion since 1985, barring a brief exception in the early 1990s. Even in the tightly contested 2017 elections, the undivided Shiv Sena managed to retain the mayor’s post despite a strong BJP challenge.

However, this time, exit polls indicate that even the rare political unity between Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray after nearly two decades may not be enough to retain control over Mumbai’s civic body.

Disclaimer: Exit polls are indicative and not final results. Actual outcomes may differ and will be confirmed after the official counting of votes on January 16.